Robotaxi thesis lab

Simulation workspace

Model inputs

Current inputs · Not run yet

2022–20395,000 drawsSeed 20300907

Operating assumptions

Truncated normal

Each draw follows a truncated normal curve. Lower and upper mark one standard deviation around its peak, not percentiles. Minimum and maximum cut it off. Sliders on the left move lower. Curve height shows relative likelihood; each row has its own scale.

ParticipationPeak 30 %
Minimum20 %Lower25 %Upper35 %Maximum40 %
Hours per dayPeak 10.5 h
Minimum6 hLower8 hUpper13 hMaximum16 h
OccupancyPeak 55 %
Minimum35 %Lower45 %Upper65 %Maximum69 %
Days per weekPeak 6.05 days
Minimum4.5 daysLower5.6 daysUpper6.5 daysMaximum7 days
Non-Asia farePeak 1 $/mi
Minimum0.7 $/miLower0.8 $/miUpper1.2 $/miMaximum1.7 $/mi
Asia farePeak 0.73 $/mi
Minimum0.5 $/miLower0.66 $/miUpper0.8 $/miMaximum1.1 $/mi
Operating costPeak 0.2 $/mi
Minimum0.1 $/miLower0.15 $/miUpper0.25 $/miMaximum0.3 $/mi
Platform feePeak 30 %
Minimum15 %Lower25 %Upper35 %Maximum45 %
Average speedPeak 15 mph
Minimum10 mphLower13 mphUpper17 mphMaximum20 mph
Vehicle lifespanPeak 10.25 years
Minimum8.5 yearsLower9 yearsUpper11.5 yearsMaximum13 years

Annual production growth

% per year
0%40%80%2022: minimum 40%, lower 55%, upper 70%, maximum 80%2023: minimum 39%, lower 50%, upper 66%, maximum 75%2024: minimum 37%, lower 43%, upper 60%, maximum 65%2025: minimum 35%, lower 40%, upper 55%, maximum 62%2026: minimum 30%, lower 38%, upper 49%, maximum 55%2027: minimum 18%, lower 25%, upper 40%, maximum 40%2028: minimum 11%, lower 18%, upper 31%, maximum 35%2029: minimum 7%, lower 12%, upper 17%, maximum 22%2030: minimum 5%, lower 9%, upper 15%, maximum 20%2031: minimum 4%, lower 8%, upper 13%, maximum 17%2032: minimum 3.5%, lower 7.5%, upper 10%, maximum 15%2033: minimum 3%, lower 7%, upper 9%, maximum 13%2034: minimum 2.5%, lower 6%, upper 8%, maximum 10%2035: minimum 2%, lower 5%, upper 7%, maximum 9%2036: minimum 1.5%, lower 4%, upper 6%, maximum 8%2037: minimum 1%, lower 3%, upper 5%, maximum 7%2038: minimum 0.5%, lower 2%, upper 4%, maximum 6%2039: minimum 0.5%, lower 1%, upper 3%, maximum 5%202220302039

Regional production

0–40% · shared axis
USAPeak 32.5%
EuropePeak 30%
ChinaPeak 31.9%
APAC excl ChinaPeak 4.75%
CanadaPeak 1%
0%40%

The model draws regional weights from these curves, then normalizes them to 100% in each draw.

Deployment windows

Sept 2022–Jan 2030 · shared axis
USAPeak Feb 2024
EuropePeak Apr 2025
ChinaPeak Jul 2024
APAC excl ChinaPeak Dec 2024
CanadaPeak May 2024
Sept 2022Jan 2030